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Mets69
70 Posts |
 Posted - 01/18/2011 : 09:15:14
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Just finished reading the book "Outliers", where the author trys to answer the question why some people succeed and others don't. When it comes to youth sports, the author makes the case that "success" is largely a function of a kids birthday relative to the cut-off date for determining age-group ranking.
For instance, if the cut-off date for determining age-group rankings is Dec. 31st, then the kid who is born on Jan. 1st, has a greater advantage over the kid who's born Dec. 31st. As a consequence, the kid who has the early birthdate relative to the cut-off age has a much better chance of getting selected for the higher level teams, and therefore reaping the benefits that those teams have to offer.
For East Cobb baseball, the cut-off date for determining age is April 30th. Out of curiosity, I checked the roster of one of the top 14U teams at East Cobb and this is what the breakdown of birthdates was ...
May thru Sep - 13 players
Oct thru Feb - 2 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
I checked my own son's team and their breakdown was as follows ...
May thru Sep - 8 players
Oct thru Feb - 4 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
If this is the trend for most teams, then it's pretty discouraging news for those kids born in Oct thru April who want to play with a high-level team! Very discouraging news for those born in Mar and April! I'd be interested in seeing what the breakdown is for other teams out there.
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DecaturDad
619 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 13:52:28
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| My son may be an exception, but he has a May 1999 birthday, and will be playing on a 12u AAA team this year. He could have stayed with his previous team and been the oldest and strongest kid on the team, or skip a year and play with kids closer to his size and ability. Come HS, they go by grade, so we decided to move him up now. |
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baseballdreams
18 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 13:58:23
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| Great post! I wished the birthday cut off dates were the same as the school system. Like it use to be. |
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rippit
667 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 14:24:20
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Mmmm...I'm sure you'll have all sorts of opinions on this.
Mine is that you should play with your grade (however I am happy about the 5 on our team that ARE NOT). My son is 13U and has a mediocre December birthday. We know several teams in the area that lost players at 13U because all the kids who had been playing down with the 6th graders in 12U suddenly jumped up to play with the 8th graders in 14U and skipped 13U completely.
That being said, there are some true 13s who also skipped right over 13U and in hindsight I wish we'd been one of them.
Our breakdown: May-Sept = 7, Oct-Feb = 3, Mar-Apr = 2.
Funny you brought this up today because I noticed it too when I put in some roster info.
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beanball
222 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 14:38:41
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Mets69
I think that its accurate that the elite teams will have kids in the older "window" of the age group. I think you can't be concerned over what you cannot control. Keep working hard at whatever level/team you're on. When you get aboue 14U the lines between age groups will become less obvious and things even out.
Just keep working hard. Its really not important until 15U |
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HITANDRUN
436 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 14:43:39
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| Tell that to one of the best hitters in baseball. José Alberto Pujols Alcántara (born January 16, 1980) |
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HITANDRUN
436 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 14:46:23
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| Mickey Mantle October 20, |
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SouthSide24
44 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 14:57:07
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| Especially those born May, June, and July they all got an extra year, when date changed happened few years back..See quite a bit on 13U rosters born during these months, would've been playing at 14..Some advantages to it. |
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stanlewis
545 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 15:25:46
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I participated in a session at a coaches conference that covered age cutoffs in depth when the USA Baseball committee changed the cutoff to May 1. There were studies of most major sports that showed that the number of top athletes birthdates was weighted heavily towards the 3 months immediately after the cutoff date. There were a lot of presentations about the whys, but the bottom line it starts at the lower ages in that the older, bigger kid gets more opportunities to play than the younger players. Major league baseball was skewed to September, October and November for American players and January, February and March for international players before the change. International baseball uses a calendar year for age determination. Back in the 70's and 80's at all-star tournaments we used to pick the favorites by looking at the rosters for the most number of players born right after the cutoff date. One of the most indepth studies was done for hockey. The book referenced above "Outliers" discusses the topic very well.
That is why the saying "Winning the birthday lottery" |
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bmoser
1633 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 15:33:38
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Mets69:
Agree 100%. I read another study of Major Leaguers' birth dates, and it came to the same conclusion. It even graphed the numbers before and after it changed (from August to May) and line graph made a turn to reflect the new cutoff date after only 1-2 years.
Are there Major Leaguers with bad birth dates? Of course, but Major League players are much more likely to have a "good" birth date than a "bad" one. There are always exceptions to the rule, and it does not mean that a player with a bad birth date cannot excel and make it to the bigs, its just more difficult on average.
I think our team has 3 players with sub-optimal birth dates.
Size is also a major factor that needs to be included in this discussion. If you have a player with a sub-optimal birth date, but has above average weight, he can offset his age deficit. If you have a below average weight kid with a sub-optimal birth date, he's going to have a tougher time competing at the AAA and Major levels. Again, some will overcome both, but most will not. It's NOT an absolute.
I think the younger the youth player, the more birth date and weight impacts performance in relationship to the older and heavier boys, but as they age, it balances out a bit if they stick with it. It can even work in their favor down the road since the younger and lighter boys have had to refine their skills more to offset their disadvantages to compete with the older and heavier boys.
I'm thinking that in 13U ball and beyond, it wont matter nearly as much because all the boys will have hit puberty, and speed will play a bigger role on the larger fields. We'll also begin to see more boys with optimal birth dates play up with boys in their own school grade to prepare for Freshman tryouts. I've seen more than a few skip 13U altogether and go right from 12U to 14U.
As a Dad of a late April player who has a below average frame, I can tell you it takes some extra encouragement at times. It will make him tougher in the long run, and if he sticks with it for just 1 more year, he'll have a better hand to play. He hasn't gone yard since 8U, but I think he will this year, and if he does, you'll ALL know it!
My son being playing with the boys he's played with since 9U are making him better, so we are grateful for that. |
Edited by - bmoser on 01/18/2011 17:02:57 |
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Beisbol
27 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 17:27:42
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| Kudos to Mets69 for starting this topic. My son has the optimal baseball birthday but poor school birthday. It has been great for baseball, but school (for many more reasons than sports) is often challenging. A long time ago someone sat down and decided that kids were to be in certain grades at certain ages. This was a huge brush that applied to.all kids everywhere, and we all know that kids do not all progress at the same pace - physically, mentally, emotionally. We have some friends who had this dilemma (great baseball and bad school birthday) . They homeschooled him one year then placed him in the grade he would have been in the year before. |
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Alter-Ego
802 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 17:34:49
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For last year's 14U Astros, 18 of the 20 players that played for the team over the course of the summer were May-Sept birthdates. The other two were Oct and Nov.
5 in May, which is the new cutoff, and 5 in August, which used to be the cutoff. |
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blowinsmoke
61 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 17:39:20
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| My lord i have heard it all now,,if your son is gonna be a pro ball player ,then his birthday dont matter |
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Mets69
70 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 18:20:18
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quote:
Originally posted by blowinsmoke
My lord i have heard it all now,,if your son is gonna be a pro ball player ,then his birthday dont matter
Apparently it does matter, as evidenced by the following article ...
http://www.slate.com/id/2188866/ |
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bball2k10
71 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 18:39:07
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| My son's birthday is April 30th, which is the cut-off date. He has always been the youngest player on every team he has ever been on, but it has never been an issue. If anything it has made him better by playing with kids that were up to a full year older. As far as size goes, this is the first year (13U) that he has been one of the smaller kids on the team, but again it is not an issue because he plays on the same level with everyone else. |
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coachpitch
66 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 18:47:07
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You're right. But, most on here are not talking about pro baseball. They are simply talking about having an advantage in playing with high level travel ball teams. In fact, the very first post that started this was relative to youth baseball...not professional. By the time someone hits that high, birthdays are no longer a major issue.
quote:
Originally posted by blowinsmoke
My lord i have heard it all now,,if your son is gonna be a pro ball player ,then his birthday dont matter
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11UFAN
149 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 20:11:18
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Interesting topic. My son has a July birthday which is great for travel baseball. However, unlike a bunch of kids that did k-prep, my son didn't so he is one of the youngest kids in 6th grade although size wise he is one of the bigger kids. This means that for school sports he is at a slight disadvantage from an age perspective.
What I've discovered though is that high level travel ball is much more competitive than school ball so it looks like he will still be ok. Anyone else have any thoughts or similiar situation? |
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SSBuckeye
575 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 21:21:58
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| 11UFAN, my son is in the exact same boat as yours.....July birthday.....youngest in his class......but one of the tallest in his grade.......14 months younger than the stud athletes in his grade, though, which makes it a little tough in feeder football, though he more than got by this year. |
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bmoser
1633 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 22:31:06
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Blowingsmoke: Here's another scientific study supporting Mets69 findings:
http://www.socialproblemindex.ualberta.ca/RelAgeMLB.pdf
There is at least one other I have read that is more current because it tracked the change in cutoff from August to May, showing the same result after the cutoff month changed (there was a 1-2 year time lag), but I cant find it using a quick web search. I'll keep looking.
Can you cite any scientific studies supporting your view?
quote:
Originally posted by blowinsmoke
My lord i have heard it all now,,if your son is gonna be a pro ball player ,then his birthday dont matter
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Triple
26 Posts |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 22:53:55
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| The cutoff date for public schools is September 1st. Yeah, in Georgia there are all those kids which are kept back, but should be the grade ahead. Baseball should line up accordingly like it used to and like other sports with an August cutoff. Kids should play their grade or the grade that they should be in. |
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G-Man
326 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 05:58:18
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This is a great topic. Lets shed some light however. Baseball USA makes the reccomendations to other baseball organizations for rule changes. It is up to those organizations as to whether or not to apply those suggestions. Rule changes can not be made by Baseball USA. They only suggest new rules. I have had several discussions with a friend of mine who use to sit on the rules committee for Baseball USA.
Are you aware that baseball in the USA is the only country according to what I last read and was told that follows the May 1st cutoff date. Girls softball in the USA is Jan 1st. Even Baseball USA teams 14u and up are Jan 1st cutoff date. International baseball is mostly Jan 1st cutoff date.
Within the next 3 years you will see the same cutoff dates for baseball in the USA as is being used for international play as well as the same dates Baseball USA uses for its programs. My biggest question would be why would Baseball USA suggest a May 1st cutoff date for others to use when it uses a Jan 1st cutoff? I have my own opinions but want to allow others to ponder theirs first before I disclose mine.
Another little interesting fact. The month of Sept has more births than any other month in the United States. Hense this may be why some of the numbers are skewed for MLB players. Again if not mistaken. There are more births between Sept and Dec then the rest of the months combine.
However having a post May 1st birthdate does help some players in the younger age groups stand out. These kids are going to be bigger and maybe even stronger. But when these young men reach the age of 14 to 16 its all evened out and sometimes sooner than 14u. To make it even more simple its about puberty. Most of these young men who are above average size and strenght have reached puberty at least a year or more ago I would suggest.
I saw a kid a few months ago from what I would consider the top 11u team in the country. This young man had more hair on his arms than I do LOL. This kid in my opinion had hit puberty early and was big enough and strong enough to play 13 or 14u. Yet he was not much smaller than his father. So to make a long story short. I believe its about puberty vs age cutoff date that determines those special attributes we see in some players at the younger playing ages. However most young men by age 13 hit puberty and by 14 through 16 catch up and pass most of the time the early bloomers assuming the genetics are there. Age cutoff dates dont have anything to do with puberty.
My son is a good example for this. He is 11 years old will turn 12 in the spring. Not an above average sized kid for his baseball age group. He has just started puberty. His uncles and I both range from 6'2 to 6'4. This tells me he will be a tall young man most likely. The 1st of Dec he wore a size 6.5 shoe by the end of Dec he moved to a size 8 and I think he is getting closer to an 8.5 than an 8. Back around Nov he was 5 ft tall. He is now 5'3. Also around that time he weighed usually around 78lbs. He now stays between 88 and 90 lbs now. These increases in size and weight are nothing more than factors of puberty. With these added gains I have seen more pop in his bat and velocity in his throws than he even had back in Nov.
My point with this is it has nothing to do with anything other than puberty. Its not his birthdate, the cutoff age date or anything else. It just so happens that kids with a post May 1st birthdate are older and therefore more likely to hit puberty sooner than their counterparts that 4 to 8 months behind them in age. Young men can start puberty by 9 years old. However most start puberty between ages 11 and 13.
Its very simple. Ability to play the game is about mechanics, the 5 tools and hard work. Size is about nothing more than genetics. Its not the cutoff dates, birthdates or anything else. At some point most everything evens out.
quote:
Originally posted by Mets69
Just finished reading the book "Outliers", where the author trys to answer the question why some people succeed and others don't. When it comes to youth sports, the author makes the case that "success" is largely a function of a kids birthday relative to the cut-off date for determining age-group ranking.
For instance, if the cut-off date for determining age-group rankings is Dec. 31st, then the kid who is born on Jan. 1st, has a greater advantage over the kid who's born Dec. 31st. As a consequence, the kid who has the early birthdate relative to the cut-off age has a much better chance of getting selected for the higher level teams, and therefore reaping the benefits that those teams have to offer.
For East Cobb baseball, the cut-off date for determining age is April 30th. Out of curiosity, I checked the roster of one of the top 14U teams at East Cobb and this is what the breakdown of birthdates was ...
May thru Sep - 13 players
Oct thru Feb - 2 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
I checked my own son's team and their breakdown was as follows ...
May thru Sep - 8 players
Oct thru Feb - 4 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
If this is the trend for most teams, then it's pretty discouraging news for those kids born in Oct thru April who want to play with a high-level team! Very discouraging news for those born in Mar and April! I'd be interested in seeing what the breakdown is for other teams out there.
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TAZ980002
831 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 07:14:32
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| Does anyone know why the cutoff date was moved from Aug 31st to Apr 30th in the first place? |
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HITANDRUN
436 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 08:03:43
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| So based on this study should you play down if you can? or should you play up if you can? |
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bmoser
1633 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 08:10:25
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Triple:
I agree totally. What was the rationale originally used to change it to something other than the school cutoff? I read a while back on these boards that it was due to get the U.S. into cync with International rules. Is that the real reason?
quote:
Originally posted by Triple
The cutoff date for public schools is September 1st. Yeah, in Georgia there are all those kids which are kept back, but should be the grade ahead. Baseball should line up accordingly like it used to and like other sports with an August cutoff. Kids should play their grade or the grade that they should be in.
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coachdan06
433 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 09:44:42
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GMAN I total agree with your bottom line summary !!
in the end your baseball future depends on ability and hard work ive seen many a 'little guy ' who wasn't big enough or well known enough not be picked for an ' all star ' team in early years end up way far ahead of your over-sized ' studs ' who many times have quit baseball by 12 or 13 when the field gets big and speed takes over
sure , early puberty helps some but don't let the littler or younger guys quit because they can be top dogs by 17 or 18 !! Ive seen it .
quote:
Originally posted by G-Man
This is a great topic. Lets shed some light however. Baseball USA makes the reccomendations to other baseball organizations for rule changes. It is up to those organizations as to whether or not to apply those suggestions. Rule changes can not be made by Baseball USA. They only suggest new rules. I have had several discussions with a friend of mine who use to sit on the rules committee for Baseball USA.
Are you aware that baseball in the USA is the only country according to what I last read and was told that follows the May 1st cutoff date. Girls softball in the USA is Jan 1st. Even Baseball USA teams 14u and up are Jan 1st cutoff date. International baseball is mostly Jan 1st cutoff date.
Within the next 3 years you will see the same cutoff dates for baseball in the USA as is being used for international play as well as the same dates Baseball USA uses for its programs. My biggest question would be why would Baseball USA suggest a May 1st cutoff date for others to use when it uses a Jan 1st cutoff? I have my own opinions but want to allow others to ponder theirs first before I disclose mine.
Another little interesting fact. The month of Sept has more births than any other month in the United States. Hense this may be why some of the numbers are skewed for MLB players. Again if not mistaken. There are more births between Sept and Dec then the rest of the months combine.
However having a post May 1st birthdate does help some players in the younger age groups stand out. These kids are going to be bigger and maybe even stronger. But when these young men reach the age of 14 to 16 its all evened out and sometimes sooner than 14u. To make it even more simple its about puberty. Most of these young men who are above average size and strenght have reached puberty at least a year or more ago I would suggest.
I saw a kid a few months ago from what I would consider the top 11u team in the country. This young man had more hair on his arms than I do LOL. This kid in my opinion had hit puberty early and was big enough and strong enough to play 13 or 14u. Yet he was not much smaller than his father. So to make a long story short. I believe its about puberty vs age cutoff date that determines those special attributes we see in some players at the younger playing ages. However most young men by age 13 hit puberty and by 14 through 16 catch up and pass most of the time the early bloomers assuming the genetics are there. Age cutoff dates dont have anything to do with puberty.
My son is a good example for this. He is 11 years old will turn 12 in the spring. Not an above average sized kid for his baseball age group. He has just started puberty. His uncles and I both range from 6'2 to 6'4. This tells me he will be a tall young man most likely. The 1st of Dec he wore a size 6.5 shoe by the end of Dec he moved to a size 8 and I think he is getting closer to an 8.5 than an 8. Back around Nov he was 5 ft tall. He is now 5'3. Also around that time he weighed usually around 78lbs. He now stays between 88 and 90 lbs now. These increases in size and weight are nothing more than factors of puberty. With these added gains I have seen more pop in his bat and velocity in his throws than he even had back in Nov.
My point with this is it has nothing to do with anything other than puberty. Its not his birthdate, the cutoff age date or anything else. It just so happens that kids with a post May 1st birthdate are older and therefore more likely to hit puberty sooner than their counterparts that 4 to 8 months behind them in age. Young men can start puberty by 9 years old. However most start puberty between ages 11 and 13.
Its very simple. Ability to play the game is about mechanics, the 5 tools and hard work. Size is about nothing more than genetics. Its not the cutoff dates, birthdates or anything else. At some point most everything evens out.
quote:
Originally posted by Mets69
Just finished reading the book "Outliers", where the author trys to answer the question why some people succeed and others don't. When it comes to youth sports, the author makes the case that "success" is largely a function of a kids birthday relative to the cut-off date for determining age-group ranking.
For instance, if the cut-off date for determining age-group rankings is Dec. 31st, then the kid who is born on Jan. 1st, has a greater advantage over the kid who's born Dec. 31st. As a consequence, the kid who has the early birthdate relative to the cut-off age has a much better chance of getting selected for the higher level teams, and therefore reaping the benefits that those teams have to offer.
For East Cobb baseball, the cut-off date for determining age is April 30th. Out of curiosity, I checked the roster of one of the top 14U teams at East Cobb and this is what the breakdown of birthdates was ...
May thru Sep - 13 players
Oct thru Feb - 2 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
I checked my own son's team and their breakdown was as follows ...
May thru Sep - 8 players
Oct thru Feb - 4 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
If this is the trend for most teams, then it's pretty discouraging news for those kids born in Oct thru April who want to play with a high-level team! Very discouraging news for those born in Mar and April! I'd be interested in seeing what the breakdown is for other teams out there.
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bmoser
1633 Posts |
Posted - 01/19/2011 : 09:57:58
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All 3 studies I've read seem to spend more time discussing the positive psychological impact (confidence let's call it) of having an age advantage much more so than discussing the physical advantages of being bigger, stronger, faster than the younger boys. I think they underestimate the physical aspects, and over playing the psychological aspects, but I have nothing to base that upon than my own observations.
While none of these studies directly answer's your question, all 3 infer that its better to keep you son down and provide him the age advantage for psychological (confidence) reasons. According to the replies in this thread, and what I've experienced that is exactly what ~75% of parents are doing. On most AAA/Major teams, ~8 kids have optimal birth dates (May, June, July, August) while ~3 have sub-optimal.
quote:
Originally posted by HITANDRUN
So based on this study should you play down if you can? or should you play up if you can?
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Baseball Success and Age Cut-Off Dates!
