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| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| Mets69 |
Posted - 01/18/2011 : 09:15:14
Just finished reading the book "Outliers", where the author trys to answer the question why some people succeed and others don't. When it comes to youth sports, the author makes the case that "success" is largely a function of a kids birthday relative to the cut-off date for determining age-group ranking.
For instance, if the cut-off date for determining age-group rankings is Dec. 31st, then the kid who is born on Jan. 1st, has a greater advantage over the kid who's born Dec. 31st. As a consequence, the kid who has the early birthdate relative to the cut-off age has a much better chance of getting selected for the higher level teams, and therefore reaping the benefits that those teams have to offer.
For East Cobb baseball, the cut-off date for determining age is April 30th. Out of curiosity, I checked the roster of one of the top 14U teams at East Cobb and this is what the breakdown of birthdates was ...
May thru Sep - 13 players
Oct thru Feb - 2 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
I checked my own son's team and their breakdown was as follows ...
May thru Sep - 8 players
Oct thru Feb - 4 players
Mar thru Apr - 0 players
If this is the trend for most teams, then it's pretty discouraging news for those kids born in Oct thru April who want to play with a high-level team! Very discouraging news for those born in Mar and April! I'd be interested in seeing what the breakdown is for other teams out there.
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| 25 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| bmoser |
Posted - 02/07/2011 : 16:19:40
msmiga:
I shared this thread with a Dad of a Freshman College Pitcher who earned a full ride to a small school, and he agreed that by College, the birth month matters very little. Each year, it matters less and less. Just gotta make it that far. |
| msmiga |
Posted - 02/07/2011 : 14:20:30
Hello All.
There have been a number of studies performed over the years regarding "Relative Age Effect" in sports; many of which can be found in the Journal of Sports Sciences. These studies are usually summarized on a handful of pages making reading time minimal. Exclusively on the subject of baseball there was a study done by Thompson, Barnsley, & Stebelsky some years back. I apologize for not including anything here as I could not recall the title and therefore could not retrieve a site from which to access the study. Still, there all very similar no matter the sport so I'm including a few links to those. Most, if not all refer to the "relative age effect" when players are younger, yet the studies seem to reveal that the gap in performance, in general, decreases as the players age. Both are Adobe .pdf files.
Here are a couple links to studies -
http://www.international.ucla.edu/cms/files/soccer.pdf
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/blogs/freakonomics/pdf/RelativeAgeEffectSportsMusch2001.pdf
Good Luck to you all this coming Season.
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| bballman |
Posted - 02/07/2011 : 11:49:33
Stinger, I am not ignoring the facts, I'm really just talking about my perspective on how to deal with them. Like I said, if 75% of Major Leaguers have a desirable birthmonth, that still leaves 25% who don't. It is not impossible to make it to the next level with a non-desireable birthmonth. Why use it as an excuse - I am not implying that you have done that Moser, not at all. I'm just saying, it can be done. Our kids birthday's are what they are, we can't change them. So why worry about it? Like I said, it's not the facts I'm arguing about, just my resonse to it and how to deal with those facts.
I'll leave it at that. No more posts on it. |
| Stinger44 |
Posted - 02/07/2011 : 11:13:00
Well, what we have here is two people battling for their ideas.
One relying on cold facts the other standing on principle.
I lean toward bball because of some of his sparkling posts, but off course hard facts are hard to argue.
Maybe it is time to say lets just agree to disagree and move on.
Might I suggest it end on an adult level ...perhaps a wiffle bat battle while dressed in full catcher gear a la Wii Sports Resort ? |
| bballman |
Posted - 02/07/2011 : 08:59:55
Yes, that is what I said. So he does have a good birthday for HS. He has a middle of the road birthday (IMO) for travel. However, I also said that from 7 - 12, he was 3 weeks away from the age cutoff. So for those ages, he was one of the youngest. His last year playing before the date change, he was the second youngest and probably the smallest kid on the team and still got voted MVP for the season. I believe that those years of playing up against kids that were almost a year older than him helped shape who he is today.
I also think that Moser and I are coming at this from two different angles. I could be wrong, but I think Moser is saying that the facts are - the age cutoff date helps those kids whose birthday falls soon after the cutoff. That is probably true since those kids will be older and presumably bigger having matured sooner. I am just saying that regardless of that, if your kid has a late birthday relative to the age cutoff date, he should continue to strive to excel and be the best. There is nothing in any study that says there are NO players who don't reach the next level due to their birthmonth. I don't think any one out there should give up or allow their kids to give up because they don't have an optimal birthmonth. It is still possible to excel regardless of birthmonth. That's just the way I feel about it. |
| SluggerrrJack |
Posted - 02/06/2011 : 22:41:38
bballman,
Did you say your son has a July birthday, is 17, and a junior? If so, he has a great baseball birthday –one of the oldest in his grade and on his travel team. If this is true, I’m not sure how you can say age doesn’t make a difference. IMO, playing up at 11 and 12 isn’t the same as playing up or completing against older players in high school and beyond.
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| bmoser |
Posted - 02/06/2011 : 17:08:23
bballman:
You are making a lot of false pretenses. I'm just stating the facts, birth month matters in the success of an athlete. That's all. The majority agree. I am not saying or insinuating anything else. |
| bballman |
Posted - 02/05/2011 : 23:46:48
So, your saying that if you have a "bad" birthday, you might as well give up? Maybe the majority of the people who make it the majors have a "good" birthday. So what? That still leaves a lot of people with a "bad" birthday who have also made it. I don't accept that if you have a "bad" birthday that your fate is sealed. It's just not true.
I have seen the studies, but refresh my memory. What percent are they saying are the majority? Is it 51% or 75% or 90%? My other question would be what is the percent of the general population who have a birthday during the "good" birthday months vs the "bad" birthday months? Is there a higher percentage of people in general born during these months?
Either way, this should never be used as an excuse. If there are 750 MLB players and 75% have a " good" birth month, that's 563 players. That means there are 187 players in the MLB with "bad" birthdays. Why can't your kid or my kid or some other Georgia kid with a "bad" birthday be one of the 187. It's not impossible to be successful with a "bad" birthday. Why use it as an excuse? Work hard, play hard and be one of the minority.
Bmoser, I'm not really sure what you mean by you prefer to discuss the majority. Does that mean you just accept that "bad" birthday kids will not make it? They say that 90% of new small businesses fail in the first year. Does that mean that people should not try to start their own business? I say of course not. If that were the case, this country would not be anywhere near the greatest country in the world - as it is. People should be able to dream and have opportunity to achieve those dreams. They should never be handcuffed by something like "the majority don't succeed". If you're trying to say that "bad" birthday kids have an inherent disadvantage, I just don't accept it. If a kid has talent, he should pursue his dreams and he should have the opportunity to go as far as that talent will take him - regardless of the month he was born. |
| bballman |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 22:32:09
Moser, my stance on the age cutoff is this. It is what it is, so why worry about it. No matter where the cutoff is, there will be older birthdays and younger birthdays. The stats may show that certain birthdays produce more players at the higher levels, but there are still a lot of players with "bad" birthdays that move on.
When the age cutoff was August 1st, my son was always one of the youngest, and one of the smallest, but was always one of the best on the team. Didn't really matter. Untill he played 12u for the 2nd time, he never played a game of baseball being the age of the age group he played in i dont think it hurt him. I actually think it helped him because he had to perform up. He was challenged and had to meet that challenge. When he played his 1st year of travel at 12u, he was 11 the whole time and still got the team MVP award. That was as the 2nd youngest kid on the team. And he possibly the smallest kid on the team.
After the age change, he had one of the "good" birthdays. But I think his make up and skills were developed and ingrained from those years playing with a "bad" birthday. It came in handy when, as a 5'8", 150 lb. Freshman, he was a starting pitcher for the HS varsity team. Pitched complete games against the two teams who wound up playing each other for the 5A state championship. He beat one of them. He was not intimidated playing against all those huge seniors because he was always playing against kids that were bigger and older than him when he was younger. That's what I think anyway.
Anyway, like I said, it is what it is. If your kid has a "bad" birthday, there's nothing you can do about it. Don't make excuses, don't give your kid an excuse. Expect him to perform. Expect him to be as good or better than the other older kids. Expect him to have fun and enjoy what he is doing. I think if you do that, he will be well prepared by the time he gets to HS. Regardless of what month he was born in.
Just my thoughts. |
| 6bomber |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 19:18:26
thanks 4 the input bballman. i have done the same with my son. he has played competitive travel ball since 8u. starting 13u this year. he has stayed with the same group of kids and coaches all the way. i didn't decide to play with this group, he did. hope my son keeps his interest in ball throughout school. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 17:09:32
Points well taken bballman. When you've been through this all before and get a chance to look back, you gain perspective. No doubt us first timers can learn from more experienced Dads/Coaches. I often post in the older age groups seeking advice. You can go to "13U Field Size" topic to see my most recent query.
I'm just unwilling to learn the lesson right now that cut off dates have no impact on baseball success. There is too much evidence to the contrary. Maybe I'll come around to your way of thinking if my son sticks with it long enough. |
| Stinger44 |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 16:03:01
quote:
Originally posted by bballman
quote:
Originally posted by bmoser
I wonder if all these Dads/Coaches of older players thought 9U-14u didn't matter when their player was 9-14? I'll have to look at today's 17U posters to see if any of them posted back in 12U 
If it doesn't matter, why do we have 11u, 12u, 13u ect., and not 11-12, 13-14, or even 7-10, 11-13? Why do Rec leagues have all-stars? Why does travel exist? Why don't we all just play together and have fun? How many of your High School's teams' players never played all stars or travel ball?
bmoser, little history on me and my son. He is 17 now, so I fall into the above category. 1st of all, I'm not sure if I posted much if at all when he was 12u (he was actually 11 at the time - with a July birthday, he was last month before the cutoff, so he was one of the youngest to play the age group). 12u was his 1st year playing travel ball. Played rec until he was 11. First year playing 12u travel, he played for the Roswell Knights (this was a local rec travel team). Coach was terrible, so we decided to go with the younger Roswell Knights team - this was the year age cutoff changed, so he and 2 other kids decided to move to the new, younger team due to coaching. He played 12, 13 & 14 on that same team when they disbanded due to going into HS. He played 15 & 16 for the Georgia Hurricanes until they disbanded and at 17, he is playing for 643. We have never sought greener pastures. We have never gone to ECB. The reason for this is because he liked the team, he liked the coaches, he liked the kids on the team and he was having fun.
Now, did I realize at that time that none of this mattered? Maybe to an extent, but not to the extent that I realize now. Part of the reason for these boards is to hear from the people that have been there and maybe learn something from them. I will tell you this. I am not anywhere near being at the end of my learning curve. There are many, many people out there who have kids in college ball, MiLB and MLB that have much more knowledge than I do and I hope to learn from them.
I can also tell you that I always tried to keep the game fun for my son. I wouldn't crucify him for making a mistake or really get on him for having a bad day. We would talk about the game and I would try to teach him, but I was always aware of his reactions and I would try to cut it off if he wasn't open to what I was saying. Sometimes that meant leaving it alone until he was feeling better. Still to this day, he can come off the field and I can say "Wasn't your best outing, was it?" and he will just say "No, I stunk tonight" or whatever. We have a good relationship. I also know that from time to time he would ask about why coach had him low in the batting order. I would just tell him that if he wanted to move up in the order, he needed to hit better. I'd ask him if he thought that was true and he'd say yeah. We'd go out and hit some balls before the next game. My point with that is, I never blamed the coach for what was going on. If he wanted a different result, I let him know that he needed to work harder and improve to the point where the coach would move him up in the order, or put him in the position he wanted to play. Self-responsibility is what I tried to teach.
Anyway, I am getting long winded. My point is just that before my son got to HS, there is no way I could have known what I do now. However, I was not into him being on the best team out there, or switching teams to get him to greener pastures. If he was happy with the team and the coaches, I was happy. We played a competitive schedule and he was challenged - even though he wasn't on the Astros. That's all I wanted for him. Play against good competition, get better and have fun doing it.
I hope some of this addresses what "all these Dads/Coaches of older players thought 9U-14u didn't matter when their player was 9-14?".
Well said, nice post. |
| bballman |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 13:25:42
quote:
Originally posted by bmoser
I wonder if all these Dads/Coaches of older players thought 9U-14u didn't matter when their player was 9-14? I'll have to look at today's 17U posters to see if any of them posted back in 12U
If it doesn't matter, why do we have 11u, 12u, 13u ect., and not 11-12, 13-14, or even 7-10, 11-13? Why do Rec leagues have all-stars? Why does travel exist? Why don't we all just play together and have fun? How many of your High School's teams' players never played all stars or travel ball?
bmoser, little history on me and my son. He is 17 now, so I fall into the above category. 1st of all, I'm not sure if I posted much if at all when he was 12u (he was actually 11 at the time - with a July birthday, he was last month before the cutoff, so he was one of the youngest to play the age group). 12u was his 1st year playing travel ball. Played rec until he was 11. First year playing 12u travel, he played for the Roswell Knights (this was a local rec travel team). Coach was terrible, so we decided to go with the younger Roswell Knights team - this was the year age cutoff changed, so he and 2 other kids decided to move to the new, younger team due to coaching. He played 12, 13 & 14 on that same team when they disbanded due to going into HS. He played 15 & 16 for the Georgia Hurricanes until they disbanded and at 17, he is playing for 643. We have never sought greener pastures. We have never gone to ECB. The reason for this is because he liked the team, he liked the coaches, he liked the kids on the team and he was having fun.
Now, did I realize at that time that none of this mattered? Maybe to an extent, but not to the extent that I realize now. Part of the reason for these boards is to hear from the people that have been there and maybe learn something from them. I will tell you this. I am not anywhere near being at the end of my learning curve. There are many, many people out there who have kids in college ball, MiLB and MLB that have much more knowledge than I do and I hope to learn from them.
I can also tell you that I always tried to keep the game fun for my son. I wouldn't crucify him for making a mistake or really get on him for having a bad day. We would talk about the game and I would try to teach him, but I was always aware of his reactions and I would try to cut it off if he wasn't open to what I was saying. Sometimes that meant leaving it alone until he was feeling better. Still to this day, he can come off the field and I can say "Wasn't your best outing, was it?" and he will just say "No, I stunk tonight" or whatever. We have a good relationship. I also know that from time to time he would ask about why coach had him low in the batting order. I would just tell him that if he wanted to move up in the order, he needed to hit better. I'd ask him if he thought that was true and he'd say yeah. We'd go out and hit some balls before the next game. My point with that is, I never blamed the coach for what was going on. If he wanted a different result, I let him know that he needed to work harder and improve to the point where the coach would move him up in the order, or put him in the position he wanted to play. Self-responsibility is what I tried to teach.
Anyway, I am getting long winded. My point is just that before my son got to HS, there is no way I could have known what I do now. However, I was not into him being on the best team out there, or switching teams to get him to greener pastures. If he was happy with the team and the coaches, I was happy. We played a competitive schedule and he was challenged - even though he wasn't on the Astros. That's all I wanted for him. Play against good competition, get better and have fun doing it.
I hope some of this addresses what "all these Dads/Coaches of older players thought 9U-14u didn't matter when their player was 9-14?". |
| coachpitch |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 12:41:35
Hey Gman-We are doing the same thing with my son for a lot of reasons and baseball is secondary. We had a hard time thinking of him going to college as a 17 year old or barely 18.
quote:
Originally posted by G-Man
I am sure we all can agree that some of the boys who have post May birthdates have a little more advantage in the younger age groups. Because most of these young men are a grade level ahead of their younger counterparts. But as each year goes by those positives start to equal out amoung those players with Jan-Apr birthdates as compared to those with May-Dec birthdays.
Now the equalizer and being able to put the shoe on the other foot that the younger Jan-Apr birthdate players have that the May-Dec players dont is the fact that they will have the ability to hold themselves back one grade level prior to entering high school and still able to complete their eligibility time table. Whereas those with May-Dec birthdates would not.
My son who is homeschooled will not enter high school for his 9th grade year until what should be his 10th grade year. This allows for more physical and mental development. There have been studies that show kids who take this route have a higher grad rate than others. This applies to not only high school but also college. Not to mention the obvious effect it will have on their sport.
Sure there are advantages and disadvanatges for some of these young men presently within the context of the organizations we are discussing who have these cutoff dates. However lets look at other organizations out there that are not really being applied to this discussion.
How many of you would love to play for Baseball USA? Did you know that the age cutoff for Baseball USA 14u and up is Jan 1st. Now based on that cutoff date those young men who have Jan through Apr birthdates now have that age advantage over those with May - Dec birthdays. American Legion which is a highly watched and recruited from baseball organization has an Aug 1st rule. This rule states that a player must be 13 years old by Aug 1st in order to play. Again those with those Jan- Apr birthdates as compared to those in their current say Usssa age bracket will have the advantage age wise over their current age division players with May-Dec birthdates.
Lets also not forget that its Baseball USA who makes these suggestions for other organizations to follow for rule changes IE: Age Cutoff Date. The last I heard within 2 years Baseball USA will suggest that these baseball organizations move the cutoff date to Jan 1st. This is being considered because it will meet all other international as well as Baseball USA's own personal cutoff date.
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| G-Man |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 11:38:41
I am sure we all can agree that some of the boys who have post May birthdates have a little more advantage in the younger age groups. Because most of these young men are a grade level ahead of their younger counterparts. But as each year goes by those positives start to equal out amoung those players with Jan-Apr birthdates as compared to those with May-Dec birthdays.
Now the equalizer and being able to put the shoe on the other foot that the younger Jan-Apr birthdate players have that the May-Dec players dont is the fact that they will have the ability to hold themselves back one grade level prior to entering high school and still able to complete their eligibility time table. Whereas those with May-Dec birthdates would not.
My son who is homeschooled will not enter high school for his 9th grade year until what should be his 10th grade year. This allows for more physical and mental development. There have been studies that show kids who take this route have a higher grad rate than others. This applies to not only high school but also college. Not to mention the obvious effect it will have on their sport.
Sure there are advantages and disadvanatges for some of these young men presently within the context of the organizations we are discussing who have these cutoff dates. However lets look at other organizations out there that are not really being applied to this discussion.
How many of you would love to play for Baseball USA? Did you know that the age cutoff for Baseball USA 14u and up is Jan 1st. Now based on that cutoff date those young men who have Jan through Apr birthdates now have that age advantage over those with May - Dec birthdays. American Legion which is a highly watched and recruited from baseball organization has an Aug 1st rule. This rule states that a player must be 13 years old by Aug 1st in order to play. Again those with those Jan- Apr birthdates as compared to those in their current say Usssa age bracket will have the advantage age wise over their current age division players with May-Dec birthdates.
Lets also not forget that its Baseball USA who makes these suggestions for other organizations to follow for rule changes IE: Age Cutoff Date. The last I heard within 2 years Baseball USA will suggest that these baseball organizations move the cutoff date to Jan 1st. This is being considered because it will meet all other international as well as Baseball USA's own personal cutoff date. |
| biggin |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 11:00:44
My son plays 11u with july 31st birthday good for baseball terrible for football we decided when it came time to start school to hold him back 1yr the only reason bein academic.its funny this past football season were we play they allow older lighter kids to play down. So we had a kid in 8th grade playin on same team as my son who is still in 5th grade. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 02/04/2011 : 10:37:25
I wonder if all these Dads/Coaches of older players thought 9U-14u didn't matter when their player was 9-14? I'll have to look at today's 17U posters to see if any of them posted back in 12U
If it doesn't matter, why do we have 11u, 12u, 13u ect., and not 11-12, 13-14, or even 7-10, 11-13? Why do Rec leagues have all-stars? Why does travel exist? Why don't we all just play together and have fun? How many of your High School's teams' players never played all stars or travel ball?
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| bmoser |
Posted - 02/03/2011 : 16:13:47
nastycurve:
How would you account for the lopsided proportion of travel baseball players with May,June,July,August birth dates as opposed to April, March, February, January?
Wouldn't you say that the one player you have playing up is in the minority?
I think in Rec, All Stars, A, and AA, it matters a lot less, but at the AAA and Major levels, it matters quite a bit. |
| yarddog |
Posted - 02/03/2011 : 15:33:50
bballman is spot on with his assessment, especially with the 17 age group. |
| nastycurve |
Posted - 02/03/2011 : 14:07:47
I don't think it matters at all. Ive got a kid on my 13u team who is actually 12 (he just turned 12 at the end of january) and this kid is as nice as any 13 year old centerfielder out there. Offensively and defensively he can compete and excel with kids a year up from him AND hes got a late birthday for his own year.
I think older players can have an advantage as their bodies are stronger and more developed, however a strong well developed kid with talent can be right there with him. |
| bballman |
Posted - 02/02/2011 : 09:29:37
2005 or 2006. I personally don't think it matters at the younger ages. I don't see a reason not to play your age, regardless. Once you get to HS, you should really play your class. The main reason for this is, if you are planning or desiring to play at the next level, it will be harder for the scouts to figure out what is going on. So, if this year, you are a 2012 grad, but are playing on a 16 yr old team, I don't think that is a good thing. Scouts are looking much more seriously at 2012's this summer. 2012's would generally be 17 yr olds. They may just be getting an eye out for 16 yr olds to put on their radar, but they will be heavily recruiting 2012's over the summer. I would say that goes for playing up at this age as well. If you are a 2012, but play on an 18 yr old team, there will be fewer college scouts. They all assume most good players have committed already.
But, like I said, for the younger ages, it doesn't really matter. Play to have fun and learn the game. The kids' true talent will be tested and measured when they get to HS. |
| HITANDRUN |
Posted - 02/02/2011 : 08:48:40
what year was the date changed? |
| bmoser |
Posted - 02/02/2011 : 08:08:58
I think the poster who used the term "playing down", meant playing baseball with those a grade below you but still within your proper baseball rules age group. |
| baseballnutz |
Posted - 02/01/2011 : 16:42:41
quote:
Originally posted by HITANDRUN
How many on your team would not be allowed to play if the date had not changed.
2 on my sons team.
We play 10U so our group has only played with the May 1st cut date, that may be where the "playing down" is coming from in the older groups. Our team using Aug 1st would have 7 kids that would have to move up. |
| Frozenrope |
Posted - 02/01/2011 : 11:09:43
IMO-It seems like a lot of thinking and maneuvering? I feel besides a bit of luck, good fortune, and good ole athleticism scouts evaluate a player on how they envision his future performance with some minor treaking and physical development.
Take a pitching scout, he will evaluate not on size (or age) but whether or not a pitcher can get a hitter out at the playing level he’s at with his “arm action throwing from his arm angle”. Pitching delivery is one aspect that will oftentimes determine the long-term , pitch-ability and repeat-ability of a prospect not the calendar month the player was born in.
Enjoy your player, develop his talents (athletically and academically), seek competition, and most of all look out for him…if it’s in the stars than he’ll thrive and catch a scout’s eye otherwise you both can some day say it was a great ride. |
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