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| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| 2019bsbl |
Posted - 08/23/2017 : 21:15:43
What do you think is the potential of a 16u submarine pitcher that throws low 80's and has a nice slider/changeup combo ? |
| 11 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| CaCO3Girl |
Posted - 09/05/2017 : 08:05:06
quote:
Originally posted by Sub33
Where have you seen a 95mph RHP is equivalent to a 82mph Submarine pitcher?
In studying MLB submarine pitchers and their pitching velocities.
Below are four MLB submarine pitchers all with excellent careers in the major league.
Chad Bradford 80-81 mph
Dan Quisenberry 79-81 mph
Kent Tekulve 80-84 mph
Brad Ziegler 82-85 mph
Velocity decreases as the arm angle lowers. Bradford and Quisenberry pitching release points were knee high or lower where as Tekulve and Ziegler release points were below the waist but above the knee, hence their higher velocities. The following web site shows how effectiveness of these pitchers.
http://grantland.com/features/brad-ziegler-appreciating-submarine-pitchers/
As for college we have Andrew Beckwith a submarine pitcher who's fastball is 79-81 mph. He was named the "Most Outstanding Player" of the 2016 College World Series.
He made three starts at the College World Series and earned three wins with a pair of complete games ... Posted an 0.76 ERA at the CWS and was the 12th player to ever notch three wins during the season's final stage in Omaha ... Opened the CWS by leading Coastal to a win over top seed Florida as he recorded his first career complete game ... In the win, only threw 98 pitches (71 strikes) and did not walk a batter ... Retired the last 10 batters he faced, scattered seven hits and struck out seven to tie his career high ... Also, his 98 pitches were the fewest by any CWS pitcher to throw nine innings or more since 1981 … Also pitched a complete game, throwing 138 pitches, in the first elimination game versus TCU in the bracket final … Scattered six hits and one run with one walk and five strikeouts in the 4-1 win … Started the final game of the championship series versus Arizona and earned the win … Pitched 5.2 innings , throwing 93 pitches, and allowed six hits, two unearned runs and three walks with two strikeouts.
His velocity of 79-81 mph was more effective than the 95 mph pitchers for Florida, TCU, and Arizona.
Weird does not mean better. Watched a game this weekend where the pitcher dominated, only one hit over 4 innings against a high level major program/team. Sounds good right, sure, until you look that it was a sub 60mph lefty throwing against 16/17 year olds then it takes on a new meaning. Effective today sure, but not long term.
As for Andrew Beckwith....I'm not trying to diminish his accomplishments, because he sounds like an outstanding player who has worked very hard. BUT even after all his accolades he was still drafted in the 32cnd round. I can't think of any college RHP throwing 95 that got drafted that late unless there was an issue. |
| in_the_know |
Posted - 09/04/2017 : 11:06:51
Sub33,
Consider your sample size. Not contradicting your analysis, but you've given 5 examples, 1 of which is college and two of the other 4 ended their careers in 1989 & 1990 (Tekulve is currently 70 and Quiz would be 63 had he not passed in '98). The other two are modern day era. Essentially, the 5 outliers across 40 years.
Compare that to the significantly greater number of "traditional" pitchers across the 40 years and apply it to the OP's question of what is the potential and I believe the answer is that it's a SIGNIFICANT longshot for him to have ANY success long term as a submarine pitcher. Even if there is validity in the velocity comparison you provide, there simply aren't many examples as a percentage of the entire population to suggest that submarine pitching is a valid means to experience prolonged success in baseball.
In the age of sabermetrics, if it were an advantage over the traditional throwers, don't you think you'd see a statistical growth of the population? Eddie Gaedel had a career 1.000 OBP, so beware of the outlier argument. |
| Sub33 |
Posted - 09/02/2017 : 02:00:35
Where have you seen a 95mph RHP is equivalent to a 82mph Submarine pitcher?
In studying MLB submarine pitchers and their pitching velocities.
Below are four MLB submarine pitchers all with excellent careers in the major league.
Chad Bradford 80-81 mph
Dan Quisenberry 79-81 mph
Kent Tekulve 80-84 mph
Brad Ziegler 82-85 mph
Velocity decreases as the arm angle lowers. Bradford and Quisenberry pitching release points were knee high or lower where as Tekulve and Ziegler release points were below the waist but above the knee, hence their higher velocities. The following web site shows how effectiveness of these pitchers.
http://grantland.com/features/brad-ziegler-appreciating-submarine-pitchers/
As for college we have Andrew Beckwith a submarine pitcher who's fastball is 79-81 mph. He was named the "Most Outstanding Player" of the 2016 College World Series.
He made three starts at the College World Series and earned three wins with a pair of complete games ... Posted an 0.76 ERA at the CWS and was the 12th player to ever notch three wins during the season's final stage in Omaha ... Opened the CWS by leading Coastal to a win over top seed Florida as he recorded his first career complete game ... In the win, only threw 98 pitches (71 strikes) and did not walk a batter ... Retired the last 10 batters he faced, scattered seven hits and struck out seven to tie his career high ... Also, his 98 pitches were the fewest by any CWS pitcher to throw nine innings or more since 1981 … Also pitched a complete game, throwing 138 pitches, in the first elimination game versus TCU in the bracket final … Scattered six hits and one run with one walk and five strikeouts in the 4-1 win … Started the final game of the championship series versus Arizona and earned the win … Pitched 5.2 innings , throwing 93 pitches, and allowed six hits, two unearned runs and three walks with two strikeouts.
His velocity of 79-81 mph was more effective than the 95 mph pitchers for Florida, TCU, and Arizona.
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| Vandy |
Posted - 09/01/2017 : 10:28:44
"Right handed 95 mph is equivalent to:
90 mph left handed pitcher or a
90 mph right handed side arm pitcher or a
82 mph right/left handed submarine pitcher."
Not sure where you got your data on this one. The split just doesn't add up. For instance it has been common place for years in the MLB that there is a .005 advantage in the favor of left vs right handed pitching. IE, team batting average of .265 vs right handed and .260 vs left. 5mph with all else equal is a huge differentiation. Especially in HS or College. Maddox threw 92 in high school and 87-88 in the MLB with outstanding control. The split for a submarine pitcher would be the same. Even more important, and regardless of velocity, is effectiveness. |
| CaCO3Girl |
Posted - 09/01/2017 : 07:26:24
quote:
Originally posted by Sub33
Pitching velocity is relative to the style of the pitcher. What I have noticed about different styles and velocities in MLB and college is as follows.
Right handed 95 mph is equivalent to:
90 mph left handed pitcher or a
90 mph right handed side arm pitcher or a
82 mph right/left handed submarine pitcher.
Note: Brad Ziegler MLB pitcher throws in the low 80s is a submariner. Also the MVP of the 2016 college world series,
Andrew Beckwith (two complete games) is also a submariner. His fastball was 79-81 mph.
So a 16 year old throwing in the low
eighties has good potential especially if he is accurate.
Where have you seen a 95mph RHP is equivalent to a 82mph Submarine pitcher?
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| in_the_know |
Posted - 08/31/2017 : 11:44:27
The key is what will his effectiveness be at 18. At 16, many hitters aren't comfortable with different style of pitchers. So if your son is effective because 16u hitters aren't comfortable vs. he's effective because he has good control, movement and deceptively changes speed, then I'd say that the hitting will easily catch up with him and chances won't be good.
Now, if he is a legitimate control pitcher, with good location and movement, then he has a chance.
Have him pitch up against older age this summer and see if he's effective. That will answer your question. |
| Sub33 |
Posted - 08/26/2017 : 01:09:34
Pitching velocity is relative to the style of the pitcher. What I have noticed about different styles and velocities in MLB and college is as follows.
Right handed 95 mph is equivalent to:
90 mph left handed pitcher or a
90 mph right handed side arm pitcher or a
82 mph right/left handed submarine pitcher.
Note: Brad Ziegler MLB pitcher throws in the low 80s is a submariner. Also the MVP of the 2016 college world series,
Andrew Beckwith (two complete games) is also a submariner. His fastball was 79-81 mph.
So a 16 year old throwing in the low
eighties has good potential especially if he is accurate.
|
| bkball |
Posted - 08/25/2017 : 13:41:19
Chance of throwing 90MPH 40%
Chance of throwing submarine style--100%
I say if you can't break 85 MPH by your senior year of HS then you may want to drop down and work on the knuckle ball or gimmick pitch |
| bballman |
Posted - 08/24/2017 : 10:58:36
My experience is that most colleges will have one submarine guy. So there is a chance. However, you are cutting your odds. Colleges will usually carry 16-18 pitchers. If only one of them are a submariner, your chances are much less than being one of the other 15-17. |
| bkball |
Posted - 08/24/2017 : 09:56:47
I think college potential. We had 3 on my 17U team this past summer and Mercer was high on 2 of them. Came out twice to watch, all 3 will be pitching in college at some level. |
| CaCO3Girl |
Posted - 08/24/2017 : 09:42:30
Submarine or not you have to look the velo, and his velo puts him D3, NAIA, Juco.
My advice, hit the weight room, do the 8 week driveline program, and try and get more velo. He's still young enough to add velo simply by growing. |
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