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| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| panther |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 10:54:21
Been a couple of years since the cut off date was changed. What do you guys think. I liked it better the old way. Sure a 10 yr. old can throw 67 it is possible. The kid is probably a b-day kid maybe? Years past I coached a kid that age that at 12 could throw 72-74 on a radar gun during a game. The kid was a first round draft choice out of high school later on. So it seems like there should even be more crazy homeruns you know the check swing homers. There should be more guys throwing hard. Heck man they are older than the used to be. Seemed like the old date was better at keeping grades together. I wonder what the percentage of travel ball players are b-day kids. I bet the number is pretty high. At young ages date of birth make a big difference in the size and strength of a kid. Was wonder which age cut off the coaches liked better. |
| 24 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| ronicard |
Posted - 11/25/2008 : 09:07:55
baseball99,
I agree with you to a point about the 67 mph thing. Few people really realize just how fast a 67 mph fastball is. At Cooperstown this summer for the 10 year old tournament, I was told there were a few kids there throwing over 70 mph. I had my radar gun with me and we put it on all 3 of the kids who were reputed to be throwing 70 or faster. One (a kid from the Texas Nationals) was throwing 67 - 68 and that was pretty fast. One, a big blonde kid from the Leon Medical Center team hit 69 one time but was in the mid 60's the rest of the time. The only kid who I witnessed (on my gun) throwing over 70 was the kid named Juan from the Leon Medical Center that they had flown in from Puerto Rico. I saw him hit 74 on my gun on MANY pitches. However, that kid had shoulders and an Adam's apple as well. If he was 10, then I'm about to turn 12. |
| leftysmom |
Posted - 11/22/2008 : 11:04:51
I think the age cut off for coaches should be 70. Ha! Sorry - couldn't resist. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 11/21/2008 : 11:58:11
I like that idea. When the boys move into Middle School, they shift into school grade cutoff. It would have to occur the Summer before they attend 6th grade. Then instead of calling them 12U, 13U, they'd be called level 6, level 7, level 8, Freshman, Sophmore, Junior, Senior.
The best time to bring this idea up would be at the U.S. Baseball Nationals where members from each of the largest organizations are together from Little League, USSSA, Dixie Youth, ect..
quote:
Originally posted by BREAMKING
Why not go to grade style travel leagues at 6th grade on. The football middle school teams have been around a while and done great. Why does baseball not have grade teams in our area. If enough interest could have more than one team per school. That to me would just make more sense. Heck man all the teams could play out of one park then also and save money on gas and travel expenses. East Cobb used to operate this way kinda in the older days in 13-14 league. Everybody played out of mt. bethel then formed summer teams. The games were good and the league was great and did not cost as much as todays travel ball schedule cost. Seems this could be done in the younger ages also something like that. All tournament park would be great for something like that for 12 and under league.
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| BREAMKING |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 14:12:41
Why not go to grade style travel leagues at 6th grade on. The football middle school teams have been around a while and done great. Why does baseball not have grade teams in our area. If enough interest could have more than one team per school. That to me would just make more sense. Heck man all the teams could play out of one park then also and save money on gas and travel expenses. East Cobb used to operate this way kinda in the older days in 13-14 league. Everybody played out of mt. bethel then formed summer teams. The games were good and the league was great and did not cost as much as todays travel ball schedule cost. Seems this could be done in the younger ages also something like that. All tournament park would be great for something like that for 12 and under league. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 12:52:16
I agree that the school cutoff dates become more relevant as boys get nearer to high school age, but the vast majority of those who start in T-ball quit along the way. I'd estimate that only 1 in 5 T-ballers ever play Majors, or 12U.
Basketball is aligned by school grade, and that makes more sense to me than baseball's May 1.
If you can keep a bad birth-date baseball player interested until high school, then he'll finally get a more level playing field.
quote:
Originally posted by biged
With these changes a child may find himself/herself at a disadvantage in youth travel sports, but at an advantage in school sports. So, if a child has an April 29th B.Day, he could be as much as 12 months younger than some of his teammates in Travel ball. However, in school sports he could find himself 8 months older than his youngest teammates.
When I was in school the age cut off for attending was sep. 1. Now it is Aug. 1. the August spike might be based on school birthdays of the past. Now that most schools follow Aug. 1, that would put Aug birthday children at a disadvantage rather than an advantage. July would then be the new August.
What I'm getting at is that travel ball, little league age cut offs do not have as much influence as we think and that maybe school age has more influence.
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| biged |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 12:10:39
bmoser is correct. Look at the stats. Doesn't mean give up on baseball. But lets be honest. Only the best of the best of the best make it to any level of pro ball. An age advantage may be the only thing that separates one athlete from the next. Put it simply, enjoy the game, enjoy the ride. Don't get obsessed about the next level, cause if u do u will miss out on the journey. |
| 743 |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 10:35:23
There are so many other variables that will determine whether or not a player makes it to the big leagues it doesn't make sense to just give up on baseball or think you wont make it because of your birthday. Your son may be that one kid like an Albert Pujols. Lets talk about genetics, speed, arm strength, drugs, cars, girls, injuries, bad coaches, lucky or unlucky breaks, who you know. These factors probably have alot more influence than a birthday. I wonder if there is a correlation between birthdays and lottery winners. To play in the big leagues the odds seem about as good as winning a lottery to me.
I had a pro scout once tell me during college if you are fast and have a strong arm
we can teach you to hit and field. You will get drafted. If you have average speed and an average arm, you probably wont go very far. You can teach hitting and fielding and even pitching but you can't teach or bring about great speed and arm strength. |
| baseball99 |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 09:24:18
What I meant was, some kids are just better athletes than others. They are born with it. Their birthday doesn't dictate how good they will be. Personally, I think the May to August birthday kids have an advantage to some degree but they have to have the physical ability and coordination to excel at any age group. As much as some people in this country want to make everything "fair", it just isn't sometimes. Different people have different strengths and bottom line, some people are just superior to others at certain things. It doesn't make them better as people, they are just better at doing some things in particular.
quote:
Originally posted by bmoser
If you want to take a minuscule sampling like this and disregard a sampling of 16,000 MLB players, I cant help you guys to understand how birth dates impact players ability to reach the major leagues. Furthermore, a sampling of superstars versus an overall sampling is not statistically relevant. If you'd like to compare credentials with me, I'd be happy to oblige, but it wont be pretty unless you too have a doctorate from MIT, or equivalent.
quote:
Originally posted by baseball99
743, what you posted proves that it doesn't really matter when you were born. If you got it, you got it.
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| bballman |
Posted - 11/20/2008 : 08:02:17
I agree with 743 as well. My son as well as one of his teammates both have late July birthdays. They both were the youngest on the teams they played on until the age change. Both were always the best on the team. At 12, my son was given the MVP award on his travel team, so being younger did not really hurt him. When the age change occured, both guys played 12 yr. old travel again. The advantage for them was they started playing with their class. Prior to that, they played with a group of kids who were a year ahead of them in school. I think it actually helped him growing up, because he had to play up to the challenge. He never played a game at the same age as the year he played. In other words, when he played 11 yr league, he was 10 the whole time.
There will always be kids who are almost a year older than others that play. No matter when the cutoff is, it will effect someone. Just gotta step up your game if you are one of the younger. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 19:51:52
If you want to take a minuscule sampling like this and disregard a sampling of 16,000 MLB players, I cant help you guys to understand how birth dates impact players ability to reach the major leagues. Furthermore, a sampling of superstars versus an overall sampling is not statistically relevant. If you'd like to compare credentials with me, I'd be happy to oblige, but it wont be pretty unless you too have a doctorate from MIT, or equivalent.
quote:
Originally posted by baseball99
743, what you posted proves that it doesn't really matter when you were born. If you got it, you got it.
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| bmoser |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 15:37:48
Then you have something special to look forward to come Spring!
quote:
Originally posted by baseball99
"Birthday kid" or not, I haven't seen any 11u players throwing 67mph.
quote:
Originally posted by bmoser
Panther,
Your right, the 67 mph thrower is a "birthdate kid", as are most travel ball and MLB players! And yes, older boy = bigger boy. This boy has more than this going for him which is why he's special.
As a parent/coach of a late April player, I hate May 1st. Travelers with mid-July to mid-November birth dates (which are most common) have a significant statistical advantage of becoming a Major leaguer. You can see how having a July 31st cut off for so many years impacted the Majors (see link below). This data goes through 2005, so the change to May 1st hasn't had ample time to impact the distribution...yet! The huge August spike will gradually shift to June as the May 1 cutoff takes hold. For travel ball, the graph would look similar, but the spike would peak in May/June.
What does this all mean? Some boys with bad birth dates find another sport where they aren't at such a disadvantage. Sad, but true.
It doesn't matter which single cutoff date we choose, a large portion of players will be fighting an uphill battle. The USSSA class system of A, AA, AAA, Major helps. Most younger boys fit better into the AA group, which is the route my son and I have chosen. I've also recently gotten him into tennis, golf, and basketball! If he wasn't a hard throwing lefty pitcher, we'd have already quit baseball.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/
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| baseball99 |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 15:26:47
743, what you posted proves that it doesn't really matter when you were born. If you got it, you got it. |
| 743 |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 13:50:54
I guess I don't understand statistics but if a kid can play he can play regardless of his birthdate. He can always wait a year and get drafted or held back in school.
Bottom line is Albert Pujols Date of Birth: January 16, 1980 MVP
Jeff Francoeur Date of Birth: January 8, 1984 Okay he hasn't proven himself yet
but another January birthday. I think a better statistical approach would be take the pitchers out of the equation and see if it changes anything.
Just for fun.....
Willie Mays Date of Birth: May 6, 1931
Babe Ruth Date of Birth: 6 February 1895
Evan Longoria Date of Birth: October 5, 1985
Hank Aaron Date of Birth: 5 February 1934
Ty Cobb Date of Birth: December 18
Mickey Mantle Date of Birth: 20 October 1931
Rafael Palmeiro Date of Birth: September 24, 1964
Roberto Alomar Date of Birth: 5 February, 1968
Mike Schmidt Date of Birth: September 27, 1949
Wade Boggs Date of Birth: June 15, 1958
Cal Ripken Date of Birth: 24 August 1960
Ken Griffey Jr. Date of Birth: 21 November, 1969
Reggie Jackson Date of Birth: May 18, 1946
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| baseball99 |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 13:31:02
"Birthday kid" or not, I haven't seen any 11u players throwing 67mph.
quote:
Originally posted by bmoser
Panther,
Your right, the 67 mph thrower is a "birthdate kid", as are most travel ball and MLB players! And yes, older boy = bigger boy. This boy has more than this going for him which is why he's special.
As a parent/coach of a late April player, I hate May 1st. Travelers with mid-July to mid-November birth dates (which are most common) have a significant statistical advantage of becoming a Major leaguer. You can see how having a July 31st cut off for so many years impacted the Majors (see link below). This data goes through 2005, so the change to May 1st hasn't had ample time to impact the distribution...yet! The huge August spike will gradually shift to June as the May 1 cutoff takes hold. For travel ball, the graph would look similar, but the spike would peak in May/June.
What does this all mean? Some boys with bad birth dates find another sport where they aren't at such a disadvantage. Sad, but true.
It doesn't matter which single cutoff date we choose, a large portion of players will be fighting an uphill battle. The USSSA class system of A, AA, AAA, Major helps. Most younger boys fit better into the AA group, which is the route my son and I have chosen. I've also recently gotten him into tennis, golf, and basketball! If he wasn't a hard throwing lefty pitcher, we'd have already quit baseball.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/
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| biged |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 10:49:25
With these changes a child may find himself/herself at a disadvantage in youth travel sports, but at an advantage in school sports. So, if a child has an April 29th B.Day, he could be as much as 12 months younger than some of his teammates in Travel ball. However, in school sports he could find himself 8 months older than his youngest teammates.
When I was in school the age cut off for attending was sep. 1. Now it is Aug. 1. the August spike might be based on school birthdays of the past. Now that most schools follow Aug. 1, that would put Aug birthday children at a disadvantage rather than an advantage. July would then be the new August.
What I'm getting at is that travel ball, little league age cut offs do not have as much influence as we think and that maybe school age has more influence. |
| bmoser |
Posted - 11/19/2008 : 09:36:43
Panther,
Your right, the 67 mph thrower is a "birthdate kid", as are most travel ball and MLB players! And yes, older boy = bigger boy. This boy has more than this going for him which is why he's special.
As a parent/coach of a late April player, I hate May 1st. Travelers with mid-July to mid-November birth dates (which are most common) have a significant statistical advantage of becoming a Major leaguer. You can see how having a July 31st cut off for so many years impacted the Majors (see link below). This data goes through 2005, so the change to May 1st hasn't had ample time to impact the distribution...yet! The huge August spike will gradually shift to June as the May 1 cutoff takes hold. For travel ball, the graph would look similar, but the spike would peak in May/June.
What does this all mean? Some boys with bad birth dates find another sport where they aren't at such a disadvantage. Sad, but true.
It doesn't matter which single cutoff date we choose, a large portion of players will be fighting an uphill battle. The USSSA class system of A, AA, AAA, Major helps. Most younger boys fit better into the AA group, which is the route my son and I have chosen. I've also recently gotten him into tennis, golf, and basketball! If he wasn't a hard throwing lefty pitcher, we'd have already quit baseball.
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2006/05/age-cut-offs-and-month-of-birth-in-baseball/
|
| Zeipe |
Posted - 11/18/2008 : 19:07:11
Why not go with August 1st? Isn't that when the new season starts? Say for 2009 season if you turn 12 between August 1st(2008) & July 31st(2009) you would have to play 12U |
| 13U NWBA Director |
Posted - 11/17/2008 : 22:45:28
Guys
Don't forget why this was all done in the first place.
The International Little League cut off date has always been January 1st, so International kids were older then the American kids. And at the 12/13 age for boys it make a BIG difference (puberty). Little League got push back about changing the date from 7/31 to 1/1, so they compromised to 4/30 as a step toward 1/1.
But guess what happened. The US teams started winning (dominating) the Little League World Series again. So moving the date to 1/1 is not as important as it once was.
Little League got what they wanted, US teams winning the World Series again. Just think how much stronger the US teams would be with a 1/1 date. |
| greglomax |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 16:52:25
I preferred the original date as well. I thought it was more in line with school year alignment as well. I suffered from the original age cutoff because my birthday is July 29th, but I still think it lines up with the school cutoff better than May 1st and especially better than Jan 1st.
I am fine with the current one because we have gotten settled in to that cutoff, but I think the Jan 1 date is a terrible idea. It would definately split up the school year. |
| 743 |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 16:02:26
I guess this answers my questions
Question: Why was the July 31 date originally used?
Answer: When the July 31 league age determination date was settled upon in the mid 1940s, Little League was confined to Pennsylvania and a few other states, and it was the only youth baseball organization (for 12-year-olds and below) of any significant size. The date was chosen because it was the date used in Williamsport schools to divide grade levels. When other youth baseball organizations began springing up (primarily for young teens) in the 1950s and 60s, they adopted Little Leagues determination date so there would be a smooth transition when a player moved from one program to another.
Question: Why doesnt Little League use the determination date that schools use?
Answer: There are local Little Leagues in ever state of the U.S., and scores of countries around the world. Schools in the U.S. use widely different dates to determine the grade in which a child will be. Some use Jan. 1, some use a summer date, and some use a date in the fall. There is not one specific date that could be used that would allow students that are in a particular grade to also be on the same Little League team. All local Little Leagues worldwide must have the same league age determination date. |
| Titans-Baseball |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 15:07:46
The only group I know of that had actually stated that they would make the change to January 1st in 2010 was PONY and now they have this statement on their website.
******************
NO AGE DETERMINATION DATE CHANGE PENDING IN 2010
When PONY changed the baseball age determination date in 2006 to April 30, there was discussion about changing it again in 2010. At the recent International Board of Directors meeting, it was agreed that the age determination date will remain April 30 for the foreseeable future. THE AGE DETERMINATION DATE WILL NOT CHANGE IN 2010.
*******************
I personlly do not like the current date of April 30th because it splits up the kids in the same grade. I think they should have stayed with the old date personally, but my guess is they will eventually go with January 1st because of the international community. |
| pcc |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 14:09:50
I like it the way it is |
| baseball99 |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 13:29:18
The most recent talk I heard was that the age cutoff could be moved to Jan 1st. |
| 743 |
Posted - 11/14/2008 : 12:49:09
If the powers that be were smart they would just go with the same birthdate that schools use. Now all the kids play with their friends in the same grade they are in. When they get to HS they play with the same kids they have been playing with for years. Some of these kids will be thrown up a year in HS and be forced to play with kids that were playing ahead of them every season. Will they adjust, probably but who knows. |
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